CAPITALSTARS- INDIAN EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK – 4 JUNE 2018

Nifty likely to open above 10,700, Dr Reddy’s Labs, Petron Engg, Whirlpool India, Cadila, Biocon, in news

Indian Indices: The Nifty50 is expected to open higher on Monday following positive trend seen in other Asian markets. The index closed 39 points higher at 10,696 on Friday. Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a gain of 44 points or 0.41 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,723.50- level on the Singaporean Stock Exchange. Wall Street stocks rose on Friday after the latest monthly jobs report pointed to strength in the US economy and geopolitical tensions eased.

Global Market:

• Asian markets- Asian markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. The Hang Seng gained 0.08%, while the Shanghai Composite led the Nikkei 225 lower. They fell 0.66% and 0.14% respectively.

• US Markets: In the week ended June 1, the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.62 percent and the S&P 500 gained 0.48 percent but the Dow Jones shed 0.48 percent.

• European markets- European markets finished broadly higher on Friday with shares in France leading the region. The CAC 40 is up 1.24% while Germany’s DAX is up 0.95% and London’s FTSE 100 is up 0.31%.

Major Headlines of the day:

• Dr Reddy’s Laboratories said the audit of API Srikakulam plant in Andhra Pradesh has been completed by the US Food and Drug Administration with zero observations.

• State Bank of India has hiked marginal cost of funds based lending rate (MCLR) by 10 bps across tenors effective June 1

• Kotak Mahindra Bank has hiked MCLR by 10-20 bps across tenors effective June 1, one-year MCLR has been hiked by 20 bps to 8.90 percent

• Punjab National Bank has raised MCLR by 10 bps effective June 1

• ICICI Bank has raised MCLR by 10 bps effective June 1

• Karnataka Bank raises deposit interest rates

• Mcleod Russel approves buyback of equity sjares at Rs 210 per share

• HDFC has raised retail prime lending rates by 10 bps effective June 2

• Idea Cellular: The company is seeking shareholder nod for issue of non-convertible securities of about Rs 15,000 crore. It is also seeking shareholder nod for change in the name of company to Vodafone Idea

• Hero MotoCorp: May total sales rose 11 percent year-on-year at 7.06 lakh units
Trend in FII flows:-

The FIIs were Net Value of Rs -202.80 in the cash segment FRIDAY while the DIIs were Net Value of Rs 337.97 as per the provisional figures.

Securities in Ban For Trade Date 04-JUNE-2018 :-

NONE

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Fed Officials signal June hike and caution on inflation progress 26 May 2018

Inflation rose at the committee’s targeted pace of a 2% annual rate in March, yet officials were cautious on whether that was sustainable given that prices had been mostly below that goal for the past six years.

Federal Reserve officials signaled they are set to raise interest rates at their meeting in June, but sent no clear message on whether they’d hike one or two more times this year following that move.

U.S. central bankers said “it would likely soon be appropriate” to increase the benchmark policy rate, according to a record of their May 1-2 meeting released Wednesday, confirming investor expectations for a move next month. Beyond that, officials “expressed a range of views on the amount of further policy firming that would likely be required.”

“It seems like they couldn’t agree on anything beyond the next meeting,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC in New York. “They’re really, truly going to be taking this one meeting at a time.”

Inflation rose at the committee’s targeted pace of a 2% annual rate in March, yet officials were cautious on whether that was sustainable given that prices had been mostly below that goal for the past six years.

“It was noted that it was premature to conclude that inflation would remain at levels around 2%, especially after several years in which inflation had persistently run below the committee’s 2% objective,” the minutes said.  The commentary was somewhat unusual given the data in hand: unemployment at the lowest level in 17 years, wages gradually moving higher and the economic expansion apparently on a firm footing.

“There was very little concern about overheating and inflation overshooting too much,” said Julia Coronado, president of Macropolicy Perspectives LLC in New York. “There was more concern that the recent progress cannot be sustained.”

March forecasts by the Federal Open Market Committee showed the committee split between three and four hikes this year, excluding three outliers. That outlook will be updated at the FOMC’s June 12-13 meeting, after which Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference.

As noted in their May 2 statement, which inserted a second reference to their “symmetric” inflation target, the committee said it wouldn’t be concerned if inflation overshot the target.

A temporary period of inflation “modestly above 2% would be consistent with the committee’s symmetric inflation objective and could be helpful in anchoring longer-run inflation expectations,” the minutes said.

“They could have sounded a lot more optimistic about the economy, and confirmed expectations for four increases this year, but they didn’t do that,” said Michael Hanson, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities in New York. “This is a committee that feels like it has been head-faked one too many times on inflation.”

Since the May meeting, the dollar has continued to strengthen, oil prices are higher, and 30-year mortgage rates have also moved up. Tightening U.S. financial conditions have been felt sharply in some emerging markets, with Argentine and Turkish currencies retreating sharply.

Fed officials have little foresight into what exiting from post-crisis, ultra-easy monetary policy will mean for the U.S. economy -- let alone the rest of the world -- and that may be one reason why they are reluctant to look beyond the next meeting.

“The closer you get to a normal monetary policy, the less agreement you’re going to have about continuing to slog along,” Stanley said. “I’m a little bit surprised that that discussion seems to be drawing so much disagreement already.”

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